Determinantes Externos de la crisis financiera nacional, Impacto del VIX y los Términos de Intercambio (2012.1-2025.2)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.57063/ricay.v5i2.244Keywords:
Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBIG), Financial crisis, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Terms of Trade (ToT), Volatility Index (VIX)Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the impact of the Market Volatility Index (VIX) and the Terms of Trade (TOT) on Peru’s national financial crises, measured through the Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBIG), during the period 2012.1–2025.2. The research adopted a quantitative approach with a non-experimental, longitudinal, and correlational-explanatory design, using quarterly time series data obtained from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and international sources. Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics and correlation analysis to assess the relationship between external variables and sovereign risk. The results showed that the VIX has a positive and statistically significant relationship with the EMBIG, indicating that increases in global financial volatility raise country risk. Conversely, the terms of trade exhibited a negative and significant relationship with the EMBIG, suggesting that improvements in external trade conditions reduce sovereign risk. It is concluded that the Peruvian economy remains highly sensitive to external financial and real shocks, highlighting the need to strengthen macroeconomic stability and reduce financial vulnerability in periods of global uncertainty.
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